Math Time

You wonder why our North American economy is tanking these days? Why we are losing manufacturing jobs to oversees? On and On and On.... Here is why it is impossible to be a business on this continent. Fear and Liability is killing our industry....

Infant Entrapment and Suffocation Prompts Stork Craft to Recall More Than 2.1 Million Drop-Side Cribs

WASHINGTON, DC – The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), in cooperation with Stork Craft Manufacturing Inc., of British Columbia, Canada, today announced the voluntary recall of more than 2.1 million Stork Craft drop-side cribs, including about 147,000 Stork Craft drop-side cribs with the Fisher-Price logo. The recall involves approximately 1,213,000 units distributed in the United States and 968,000 units distributed in Canada.

Now don't get me wrong, the death of any child is a tragedy beyond words. But the reality is that our world is not perfect. When we demand perfection we will fail every time...The expectation of perfection in the business world causes business to fail, and or move to a place where reasonable expectations are placed upon them.

let's look at the math behind this story.

2,100,000 Cribs are being recalled.

Let's assume for the heck of it that each crib is used only once per day for a sleep cycle.

So those 2.1 million cribs are used 365 times a year. That is 766,500,000 sleep cycles per year.

These cribs being recalled have been in use since 1993. That is 16 years of sleep cycles. or

12,264,000,000 Sleep Cycles total...

that is 12 Billion times they have been used...

In that time, there have been 12 reported problems with the railings, which unfortunately resulted in 4 deaths.

That means that a child in that crib has a:

Chance of Injury: 1-in-1,000,000,000

Chance of Death: 1-in-4,000,000,000

Compare that to the following risks of death:

Air Travel Accident	1-in-20,000
Flood	1-in-30,000
Legal Execution	1-in-58,618
Tornado	1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike	1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting	1-in-100,000
Earthquake	1-in-131,890
Dog Attack	1-in-147,717
Asteroid Impact	1-in-200,000
Tsunami	1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge	1-in-615,488

So are these cribs really so dangerous that we need to have companies spend millions of dollars on recalls and liability? Or are we just expecting perfection in an imperfect world?

-B

you put your weed in it...

I recently caught sight of a couple of drunk, weed smoking disc golfers in the park. It is stunning how they are ruining our community:


Here is a copy of the letter I wrote to the paper today:

Over the previous few weeks it has been disheartening to witness and experience first-hand the attitude and attacks by those who oppose disc golf. Letters in the paper, phone calls, and personal conversations have often been filled with degrading stereotypes, profanity laced tirades and even harassing phone calls to people’s homes by those who seek to keep disc golf out of Bidwell Park.

Disc golf supporters have recently sat at the table with city officials and opponents and attempted to compromise. The only compromise offered by opponents has been to close the courses and study other possible locations. (locations that are already known to be impossible or impractical for disc golf) The entire debate centers around the fact that the Bidwell Park Plan supported a number of compromises and the council chose the only option that contained no compromise for recreationists. We want to work to make our park recreational as well as more environmentally nurturing. We are willing to compromise.

The referendum effort has been an incredible experience of community involvement. The wide cross-section of our community that I have encountered and worked alongside has increased my love for the Chico community. The absolutely unwillingness to compromise and derogatory attitude of disc opponents has been greatly discouraging. I applaud the council’s decision to reconsider their previous vote at the next council meeting. I simply ask for reason and compromise by all who are involved and a new decision that accurately represents the views of our community.


I referred to the council decision to reconsider disc golf. You can read about that here.

In response to Josephine's letter in the paper today and in particular the following quote:

"Instead of working with the city to find a new location, they are obstructing implementation of the entire Bidwell Park management plan using
fear-based myths. "

1. Disc Golf supporters have been working with the city to find a new location. Please refresh yourself on the last couple of decades of disc golf history. Every attempt to locate an alternate location has lead back to the current location being the most suitable.

2. Yes, i concede I am using fear-based myths. I think that is very appropriate in this situation. I am honestly afraid of losing additional recreation in our park. That is my true fear. I fear my kids will be limited in their ability to hike, bike, swim, disc golf and more.

Every day when i ride my bike through the park to work, (because even as a disc golfer, i do consider myself to be an environmentalist...) I look around and hope that I am wrong. That is the fear that that I face each day. Perhaps it it is irrational, perhaps it is purely myth, but in my opinion the council's decision opened the door to future reduction in recreation opportunities.

There is no other conclusion to draw when we have far greater intensive recreation occuring all over the park and we are being told that disc golf is too intensive. One group of opponents pushed for disc golf to be removed, who is to say that won't happen to hiking, biking and more?

I admit it, I am a fear-monger. I fear the park will become a nature preserve. I love nature preserves. I have visited many. But Bidwell is meant to be a place where nature and recreation co-exist. So I will continue to ask for signatures. I collect them not to save disc golf. But because i fear losing something far greater and special... the place my kids run, play and explore each day. I sincerely hope you are right and this fear is purely a myth...

Brian