Monday, November 30, 2009

Math Time

You wonder why our North American economy is tanking these days? Why we are losing manufacturing jobs to oversees? On and On and On.... Here is why it is impossible to be a business on this continent. Fear and Liability is killing our industry....

Infant Entrapment and Suffocation Prompts Stork Craft to Recall More Than 2.1 Million Drop-Side Cribs

WASHINGTON, DC – The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), in cooperation with Stork Craft Manufacturing Inc., of British Columbia, Canada, today announced the voluntary recall of more than 2.1 million Stork Craft drop-side cribs, including about 147,000 Stork Craft drop-side cribs with the Fisher-Price logo. The recall involves approximately 1,213,000 units distributed in the United States and 968,000 units distributed in Canada.

Now don't get me wrong, the death of any child is a tragedy beyond words. But the reality is that our world is not perfect. When we demand perfection we will fail every time...The expectation of perfection in the business world causes business to fail, and or move to a place where reasonable expectations are placed upon them.

let's look at the math behind this story.

2,100,000 Cribs are being recalled.

Let's assume for the heck of it that each crib is used only once per day for a sleep cycle.

So those 2.1 million cribs are used 365 times a year. That is 766,500,000 sleep cycles per year.

These cribs being recalled have been in use since 1993. That is 16 years of sleep cycles. or

12,264,000,000 Sleep Cycles total...

that is 12 Billion times they have been used...

In that time, there have been 12 reported problems with the railings, which unfortunately resulted in 4 deaths.

That means that a child in that crib has a:

Chance of Injury: 1-in-1,000,000,000

Chance of Death: 1-in-4,000,000,000

Compare that to the following risks of death:

Air Travel Accident

1-in-20,000

Flood

1-in-30,000

Legal Execution

1-in-58,618

Tornado

1-in-60,000

Lightning Strike

1-in-83,930

Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting

1-in-100,000

Earthquake

1-in-131,890

Dog Attack

1-in-147,717

Asteroid Impact

1-in-200,000

Tsunami 1-in-500,000

Fireworks Discharge

1-in-615,488

So are these cribs really so dangerous that we need to have companies spend millions of dollars on recalls and liability? Or are we just expecting perfection in an imperfect world?

-B



1 comments:

Brian, very well written, I totally agree!

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